A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Affiliated Managers Group (AMG Quick QuoteAMG - Free Report) . Shares have added about 18.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Affiliated Managers due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Affiliated Managers Q3 Earnings Beat, AUM Balance Down

Affiliated Managers’ third-quarter 2020 economic earnings of $3.27 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.86. Also, the bottom line grew 3.5% year over year.

The results reflect lower operating expenses and a robust liquidity position. However, lower revenues, fall in assets under management (AUM) balance and decline in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were headwinds.

Economic net income was $152.1 million, down 4.6% from the prior-year quarter.

Revenues & AUM Down, Expenses Fall

Total revenues fell 9.9% year over year to $494.8 million. However, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $478.4 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $181.2 million, down 12.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Total expenses decreased 3.8% to $359.2 million. Decline in compensation and related expenses, and selling, general and administrative costs primarily led to the fall.

As of Sep 30, 2020, total AUM was $653.5 billion, down 12.9% year over year. Net client cash outflows of $14 billion hurt AUM.

Capital & Liquidity Position Decent

As of Sep 30, 2020, Affiliated Managers had $929.4 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $539.6 million on Dec 31, 2019. The company had $2.3 billion of debt, up 28.8% from the Dec 31, 2019 level.

Shareholders’ equity as of Sep 30, 2020 was $2.8 billion compared with $2.9 billion as of Dec 31, 2019.

Share Repurchase Update

During the third quarter, the company repurchased shares worth $85 million.

Fourth-Quarter 2020 Outlook

Management expects adjusted EBITDA of $200-$230 million, based on present AUM level. Performance fee is anticipated to be in the range of $20-$50 million.

Interest expenses are expected to be $27 million, suggesting 12.5% increase from the prior quarter level owing hybrid debt issuance in September 2020. Controlling interest depreciation is expected to remain at the third quarter level of $3 million.

The company’s share of reported amortization and impairments are expected to be approximately $50 million, down 15.3% sequentially. Intangible related deferred taxes are projected to be approximately $5 million.

Other economic items (excluding any mark-to-market impact) is anticipated to be $1 million.

Adjusted weighted average share count is estimated to be $45.4 million.

GAAP tax rate is expected to be 25%. Additionally, cash tax rate is expected to be 21%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 8.14% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Affiliated Managers has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Affiliated Managers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.